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aws〖账号〗(www.2km.me)_Manufacturing on comeback trail

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PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s manufacturing activities are expected to strengthen in the final quarter of this year and into next year, according to several brokerages.

Their optimistic outlook is based on the anticipated recovery in domestic demand and improving external trade as more economies open up from Covid-19 lockdowns.

IHS Markit data on Monday showed Malaysia’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in October had returned to expansion territory, that is above 50 points, after four consecutive months of contraction.

The PMI, an indicator of the manufacturing performance, soared to 52.2 points last month from 48.1 points in September.

The improvement in the country’s manufacturing conditions was mainly due to the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions as more states moved to phases three and four of the National Recovery Plan, with more manufacturing subsectors resuming operations amid the progress of vaccination rates.

Kenanga Research noted Malaysia’s manufacturing conditions could continue to see recovery, thanks to the resumption of economic activities in the country.

“The domestic manufacturing sector is expected to gradually recover in the final quarter of this year and going into 2022,” the brokerage said.

“This is attributable to the relaxation of the Covid-19 movement restrictions on the back of vaccination progress, unleashed pent-up demand, continued support from the fiscal and financial measures, and strong external demand from major economies,” it explained in its report yesterday.

Against this backdrop, Kenanga Research maintained its value-added manufacturing growth forecast at 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 against the expected 2.1% in the third quarter.

This would bring the overall manufacturing growth to 9.1% in 2021, compared with a contraction of 2.6% in 2020.

Likewise, Kenanga Research forecast Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 3.5%-4.0% in 2021 before accelerating to 5.5%-6.0% in 2022.

MIDF Research noted firms remained optimistic, underpinned by hopes that that the Covid-19 pandemic would continue to dissipate and demand would recover.

“We anticipate manufacturing activities in Malaysia to strengthen, further bolstered by the recovery in domestic demand and the robust trade performance,” the research house said.

However, MIDF Research said several factors could affect the sector’s growth. These included weaker-than-expected external demand due potentially to a resurgence of Covid-19 infections and tighter containment measures; the rise in production costs; high commodity prices; and other supply chain challenges.

“The upward pressure on producer prices continued to rise driven by the supply and logistic constraints, which led to the input price rising at the fastest pace since May 2021. As a result, output prices increased passing more costs burden to the consumers,” MIDF Research said.Meanwhile, AmBank Research said the October PMI showed that the manufacturing sector is now back on track towards recovery as the effects of severe pandemic restrictions subside.

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