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PETALING JAYA: The Cukai Makmur or prosperity tax under Budget 2022 is expected to dampen banks’ earnings in financial year 2022 (FY22), but a possible offset could be lower-than-expected provisions with the economy improving.
Notwithstanding the one-off special tax of 33% to be imposed on companies that have a pre-tax profit of above RM100mil, analysts remain bullish on the banking sector as September banking system data continues to point towards an economic recovery.
Maybank investment Bank (IB) Research said the pace of contraction in working capital loan applications is slowing and looks set to turn the corner.
“With the gradual opening up of the economy, we expect loan growth to strengthen in the coming months and maintain our industry loan growth forecast of 3.8% (annualised 3.4% at end-September 2021),” the research firm said in a note to clients yesterday.
Meanwhile, RHB Research said that banks remained the best proxy for the economic recovery and an interest rate hike cycle, while the impact of the National People’s Wellbeing and Economic Recovery or Pemulih moratorium is expected to be manageable, given the very targeted scope.
It noted that the healthy uptick in system loans in September, which offsets the month-on-month (m-o-m) contraction in August, points to a sequentially stronger loan growth for the third quarter of 2021, albeit a modest rise.
“Net interest margin (NIM) will likely be stable, given the still-healthy current account savings account or CASA growth and unchanged policy rate. Asset quality, we believe, remained steady – helped by the various relief assistance provided by banks,” it said in a report.
System loans for September rebounded by a healthy 1% m-o-m, helped by the phased relaxation of lockdown measures.
Annualised loan growth for the nine-month period, meanwhile, strengthened to 3.4%, from 2.3% for the eight months of 2021.
Maybank IB said while loan applications contracted 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2021 (being the fourth consecutive month of contraction) what was positive was that loan applications rebounded 12% m-o-m in absolute terms to RM75bil in September 2021. “On a three-month moving average basis, the pace of contraction in working capital loan applications narrowed to just -1.4% y-o-y in September (from -7.4% y-o-y in August 2021) and looks set to turn the corner with a resumption in growth, having contracted over the past 13 consecutive months,” it pointed out.
Several banking stocks rebounded yesterday after being sold down on Monday over the proposed prosperity tax as some investors viewed the share price weakness as an opportunity to accumulate.
UOB Kay Hian said the sector was still trading at a relatively attractive valuation of -1.5 standard deviation below its historical five-year mean price-to-book.
According to the research firm, the sector is still expected to register an earnings growth in 2022 despite the hefty increase in corporate tax.