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PETALING JAYA: The performance of the ringgit against the US dollar for the rest of the year will hinge on fund flows.
Foreign exchange strategists and economists concurred that the tapering by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of its bond-buying programme or quantitative (QE) easing would not bode well for the local currency.Right track: Nadia says the ringgit remains on track to meet RAM Ratings’ projection range for the year.
If this scenario takes place, they noted that there would be outflow of funds by investors from the local bond market into the US treasuries in search of higher yields or interest rates.
This would put pressure on the local currency against the US dollar.
The Fed has hinted that it could start the tapering exercise by next month. QE is when a central bank buys long-term securities from its member banks.
By carrying out this exercise, the central bank increases the money supply by printing new currency and injects money to expand economic activities. This exercise also tends to weaken the value of a currency.
RAM Rating Services Bhd economist Nadia Mazlan told StarBiz that the performance of the ringgit would be largely influenced by fund flows.
She said the US Fed recently signalled that it may start interest rate normalisation in 2022 and that the tapering could happen as early as next month.
If so, she said this may lead to fund outflows from Malaysia as investors flock towards US Treasuries and subsequently place further downward pressure on the ringgit.
This trend would also be reflected in neighbouring countries, she said.
“Similar to the ringgit, regional currencies, such as the Philippine peso and Thai baht, have been facing some downward pressure against the US dollar lately.
“This is partially due to funds shifting their focus away from emerging markets in reaction to the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States,” Nadia added.Healthy trend: Saktiandi says the recent robust oil prices are beneficial for the country’s trade balance.
RAM’s Nadia estimates the ringgit’s full-year average of 4.10 to 4.20 against the US dollar this year.
The local currency is expected to perform stronger against the greenback compared with 2020 which averaged at 4.20 to the US dollar. This view is on the back of dissipating pandemic challenges, sustained foreign fund inflow into the bond market amid the still-favourable yield differentials as well as rising crude oil prices.