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,Despite the glove sector’s explosive earnings amounting to multiple years consolidated in the past year alone, the share price has been falling. Interestingly, valuation contraction has been happening in spite of earnings expansion, with many analysts downgrading the target price irrespective of the results reported.

APART from badminton, I believe diving is the most exciting Olympic sporting event for most Malaysians. Probably, this has to do with the fact that Malaysian athletes have traditionally done very well in both events, with the best result being a silver medal back in Rio Olympics 2016.

Naturally, our people are hopeful that either one of the events would eventually deliver the elusive gold medal for our nation.

As I followed anxiously for Nur Dhabitah Sabri, Cheong Jun Hoong and Pandalela Rinong to challenge the diving powerhouse China for a podium finish, I couldn’t help but notice the interesting scoring system in the individual diving event.

It essentially works like this: From a panel of seven judges, the top two scores and bottom two scores are discarded; the remaining three scores are added together and multiplied by the dive’s difficulty rating to reach a final score.

I find this fascinating because the methodology appears to rely on consensus to arrive at a fair assessment by negating extremities on both ends. In short, it hopes that via median scores and a consensus-driven approach, subjectivity would be eliminated when judging divers’ performance. This inevitably reminds me of how research analysts rate companies listed on the stock market.

There are many research houses in the market, so it is likely that good companies are covered by more than one analyst. This is why a concept called “consensus” becomes important. What this means is that when a listed company reports earnings, investors will assess if the company beats “consensus” or underperforms it. If the company beats “consensus” forecasted by analysts, then the share price would tend to go up and vice versa.CLICK TO ENLARGE

This is not a hard and fast rule but it is a benchmark. With this benchmark, investors can then gauge the forecast target price against the current stock price and decide if it is viable for investment.

The idea of “consensus” is somewhat similar to diving’s scoring system, except there is no discarding of extremities at both ends. Investors can decide which report to rely on based on what makes most sense to them.

Alternatively, they can fall back on the consensus. After all, it is unlikely that a majority of analysts are wrong on a particular sector or company right? Now, what if I tell you that “consensus” may not always be based on objectivity but rather on “herd mentality” of peers? Would this “consensus” concept then be flawed?


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